This Ignatius Ganago miss vs Nice was a shocking open goal miss from the Cameroonian international over the weekend. The miss had a xG of 0.89 according to one model, as close to a goal as you’d probably see. One of the reasons Lens, despite dominating on the xG and shots count, somehow ended up on the losing side
RC Lens
xG Nice vs Lens 0.18-3.04 | Expected Goals Stats & Shots Map OGCN 2-1 RC Lens 2020
Here is a look at the xG stats from Nice vs RC Lens in the French league on 24 August, 2020. Promoted Lens absolutely dominated this game in terms of chances, but Patrick Vieira’s Nice somehow won the fixture, thanks to a stunning brace from Amine Gouiri (their purchase from Lyon). This data is from two different models, but the story is the same- how did Lens not win this game with the chances they created? (16 shots to 4, high xG, but lost)
Model 1 | xG Nice 0.18-3.04 Lens (Actual score Nice 2-1 Lens)
xG of individual goals
0-1 Gael Kakuta penalty 11′ xG 0.76
1-1 Amine Gouiri 23′ first goal xG 0.07
2-1 Amine Gouiri 75′ second goal xG 0.05
xG of some big RC Lens chances missed
Ignatius Ganago miss 20′ xG 0.89 (big, big open goal missed chance here)
Simon Banza miss 68′ xG 0.46
Simon Banza miss 84′ xG 0.25