Here is a look at the xG stats from Nice vs RC Lens in the French league on 24 August, 2020. Promoted Lens absolutely dominated this game in terms of chances, but Patrick Vieira’s Nice somehow won the fixture, thanks to a stunning brace from Amine Gouiri (their purchase from Lyon). This data is from two different models, but the story is the same- how did Lens not win this game with the chances they created? (16 shots to 4, high xG, but lost)
Model 1 | xG Nice 0.18-3.04 Lens (Actual score Nice 2-1 Lens)
xG of individual goals
0-1 Gael Kakuta penalty 11′ xG 0.76
1-1 Amine Gouiri 23′ first goal xG 0.07
2-1 Amine Gouiri 75′ second goal xG 0.05
xG of some big RC Lens chances missed
Ignatius Ganago miss 20′ xG 0.89 (big, big open goal missed chance here)
Simon Banza miss 68′ xG 0.46
Simon Banza miss 84′ xG 0.25