Click here for expected goals stats England vs Spain Euro 2024 final
Click here for Newspaper Player Ratings for Italy v England (From L’Equipe, Bild, Diario AS etc)
Here is a look at the xG (expected goals) stats for Italy vs England (Euro 2020 final) on July 11, 2021. Italy won the game 3-2 on penalties in front of a tournament record crowd of 67,173 at Wembley, and as you can see, were perhaps the better side over 120 minutes, with England effectively shutting up shop after the early 2nd minute Luke Shaw goal. 19 shots for Italy in the game compared to only 6 for England. Italy had 66% of possession and made 822 passes in comparison to England’s 424 (almost twice as many).
xG Italy 2.69-0.75 England shots map (Actual score Italy 1-1 England; Ita won 3-2 on pens)
1-0 Shaw goal xG 0.42
1-1 Leo Bonucci goal xG 0.64
Some other notable chances in Italy v England and their xG
Chiesa 35th minute chance xG 0.03– nice low shot after fine individual run, but just wide
Immobile 45+1′ chance xG 0.10– blocked by Stones
51st minute Insigne free kick chance xG 0.13
Chiesa 62nd minute chance xG 0.12– fine save by Pickford at full stretch
Verratti 67th minute chance xG 0.36– saved by Pickford then rebounds off post and falls to Bonucci
Berardi 73rd minute chance xG 0.55– volleyed over.
Belotti 103rd minute chance xG 0.13– wide
64th minute Stones header chance xG 0.10– over the bar
Full time post match stats Italy vs England 1-1 Euros for comparison
(Italian stats on left; England FT stats on right)
Perhaps the worst thing is this game was for England to take an early lead, just as it was in the WC semi against Croatia.
The Italians were there for the taking.
For me it was clear that Mancini understood the first half and significantly adapted the Italian team setup at half time. From 45th to 70th minute the Italian defensive line actually played 15-20 yards inside England’s half! Mancini regularly remonstrating with them to push higher.
During this 25 minute period Italy had 1.26 xG as they generated chance after chance recycling the ball across their backline just 45 yards from the England goal.
They were able to do this because Harry Kane dropped to an anchor midfield position in a defensive transition, allowing Italy to walk the ball up the pitch and play extremely high (65 yards up). The Italians were always fearful of their old CB’s being exposed by Englands pace but instead our CF played so deep that they were never threatened, not even once. Infact our entire frontline of Kane, Sterling and Mount did not have a single shot on goal in the entire game. Mancini saw that his biggest fear would not be realised and so he adapted and pushed his back line forward to play a crazy crazy high line.
Southgate’s response to this was to do nothing. Nothing. Instead of bringing on a fast CF (DCL) or moving Sterling to CF, to pin the Italian back line to the halfway… Southgate at 1-0 up decided he would play for penalties and would play his ace card in the 118th minute by bringing on 2 cold and underutilised forwards on the merit of their training ground data. This submissive and all to clever plan backfired in spectacular fashion.
If Southgate had spotted Mancini’s tactical changes, as many at home did, and instead changed system at the 50th minute to have a fast CF permanently stationed on the halfway line, then that one England player would have negated 2-3 of the Italian passing options (also their safest options) and forced them to resort to the following:
1). Play long cross field balls, many of which they would have lost to our superior wing back 2). Play it back to their keeper and start again
3). Compete with Philips / Rice / Henderson through the middle
4). Drive to the corners and try for crosses
Instead we allowed them 70% possession just 40 yards from our goal for a full 20-25 minutes, we allowed them to rack up 1.26 xG in this short period and inevitably get their equaliser. We traded a lead for Russian roulette.
Quite poor tactical management from the sideline. Nowhere near good enough.
Kane, Sterling and Mount finished the game with 0.00 xG between them, not a single shot.
Kane might offer a lot creatively when he comes deep during possession, but there is no benefit from him coming so deep whilst out of possession, he lacks the mobility to cover 65 yards even if we do win the ball, it was a terrible mistake for him to sit so deep in defence and it invited 1.26xG of pressure and ultimately cost us the game.
But the blame lies not with Kane, but with Southgate. Southgate does many things well, he has completely turned around the difficult culture and is obviously very capable at the training ground and in the dressing room, but on the pitch side he is way out of his depth.
Far too reliant on his assistants and their A6 notepads, it’s too subjective and over romanticised. This is 2021, there should be digital screens in the dugout and an offsite biotelemetry team relaying data to the pitch side much more like an F1 set up.
It’s time to take it seriously, there was ~100 million man hours of audience time there yesterday and that’s just within the UK. Fix it. Take it to the next level.
How does an Italian player get away with grabbing the collar of an English player pulling him backwards onto the ground and not be given a yellow card for the offence
Hey David Bird (July 12, 2021 7:06pm), after Stu and Sean’s astute observations, you are concerned about a yellow card, that wouldn’t have made a difference.
In summary, Southgate’s tactics were shit, and england shot themselves in the foot. Shoulda woulda coulda.. but in the end Italy deservedly won. It’s coming Rome! It’s coming Rome!
Hey David Bird (and James Bond), the yellow card was given.