Here is a look at the xG stats from Liverpool vs Leeds in the PL on 12 September, 2020. LUFC gave the defending champions a real run for their money, with LFC edging this clash thanks to a late penalty from Mo Salah. Data has been compiled from two different sources- both shown here.
Model 1 | xG Liverpool 3.12-0.33 Leeds (Actual score LFC 4-3 LUFC)
xG of individual goals in LFC v Leeds
Liverpool 1-0 Leeds Salah 4′ penalty goal xG 0.80
Liverpool 1-1 Leeds Harrison 12′ goal xG 0.05
Liverpool 2-1 Leeds Van Dijk 20′ goal xG 0.37
Liverpool 2-2 Leeds Bamford 30′ goal xG 0.06
Liverpool 3-2 Leeds Salah 33′ goal xG 0.07
Liverpool 3-3 Leeds Klisch 66′ goal xG 0.07
Liverpool 4-3 Leeds Salah 88′ penalty goal xG 0.80
Obviously the two penalties (with a combined 1.60 xG) do aid Liverpool’s expected goals stats here, but they did have 22 shots to LUFC’s 6. All of Leeds’ goals had a low xG, indicating how well they were taken.
Leeds however did have more possession (52%) and passes- a fine feat for them against a team of Liverpool’s calibre.
Model 2 | xG LFC 3.30-0.60 LUFC (Actual score Liverpool 4-3 Leeds)
xG of some individual LFC players vs Leeds in this model
Mo Salah xG 1.9
Firmino xG 0.5
Wijnaldum xG 0.4
Sadio Mane xG 0.2
Virgil van Dijk xG 0.2
Naby Keita xG 0.1
Full time post match stats Liverpool 4-3 Leeds (LFC on left, LUFC on right)
If they play like that every time, Leeds should comfortably finish in the top ten. Gave Liverpool a real scare here.