The expected goals (xG) metrics for the Liverpool v Arsenal Community Shield clash painted a slightly different picture of the game- LFC had the better quality of chances (they had 3 big chances against none for the Gunners). Arsenal’s only goal of the game- a stunner from Pierre Emerick Aubameyang had a lower xG in comparison to the Minamino goal for Liverpool, which was a more straightforward finish.
xG models can vary, so here are the numbers from two different models. They both agree on one thing though- LFC had the better chances.
Model 1 | xG Liverpool 2.07-0.96 Arsenal (Actual Score LFC 1-1 AFC; Arsenal won 5-4 on penalties)
Some important chances missed by Liverpool
James Milner header 12′ (just before the Auba goal)
Sadio Mane 56′ (saved by Emiliano Martinez)
Sadio Mane 81′ (saved by Martinez)
Model 2 | xG LFC 1.66-0.69 AFC
Post match FT stats (LHS Arsenal, RHS Liverpool)
Apart from the goal, Arsenal had a decent chance missed by Eddie Nketiah (18′- saved by Alisson)
Rhian Brewster missed his penalty in the shootout, while Arsenal converted all five of theirs- including an ice cool penalty from MOTM Ainsley Maitland Niles, who was also celebrating his 23rd birthday.