Click here for xG stats Paris SG vs Bayern Round of 16 First Leg February 14 2023
Click here for xG stats Bayern vs PSG Quarterfinal UCL April 7 2021
Here is a look at the xG stats for the PSG vs Bayern Munich Champions League final, a fixture the German giants edged 1-0 on 23 August, 2020 thanks to Kingsley Coman’s header on the hour mark. A tight game, perhaps shaded by Bayern, but PSG did have their chances as shown on this expected goals map. Data from two different xG data models.
Model 1| xG PSG 1.02-1.59 Bayern Munich (Actual score Paris SG 0-1 FC Bayern)
xG of Bayern winning goal: Kingsley Coman header goal 59′ (xG 0.40)
xG of some big missed chances for PSG
Kylian Mbappe miss 45′ xG (0.31)- shot straight at Manuel Neuer
Marquinhos missed chance 70′ xG (0.32)- again saved by Neuer
Neymar missed chance 18′ xG (0.06)- promising chance on counter, denied by Neuer
Mbappe’s shot didn’t quite have the power it needed, but Neuer was excellent in the Bayern goal.
Paris Saint-Germain had more shots inside the box, as seen in the map, but weren’t able to convert any of them.
xG of some notable Bayern Munchen misses
Robert Lewandowski miss 31′ (xG 0.48)- header from close range, parried by Keylor Navas.
Robert Lewandowski chance 22′ (xG 0.08)- a shot that beat the diving Navas, but hit the post.
Kingsley Coman miss 63′ (xG 0.43)- cleared off by PSG defender.
Model 2 | xG PSG 1.8-0.9 Bayern Munich (Actual score PSG 0-1 FC Bayern)
This model is from Stats Bomb data that also takes into account defender and goalkeeper positioning. It thinks PSG had the better chances, compared to Bayern Munchen.
Cumulative xG map Bayern Paris (model 2)
xG of key individual Paris SG players vs Bayern
Neymar xG 0.5
Mbappe xG 0.6
Di Maria xG 0.3
Marquinhos xG 0.2
Choupo-Moting xG 0.1
xG of key individual Bayern Munchen players vs PSG in the second model
Robert Lewandowski xG 0.4
Kingsley Coman xG 0.3
Leon Goretzka xG 0.1
Also check out our other coverage- L’Equipe, Bild and other newspaper ratings for PSG Bayern and European newspaper headlines and reaction to Paris v Bayern.
Like with Lyon, PSG just didn’t take the chances that game their way. The Mbappe chance just before half time was a really, really good one. Can’t be missing from there if you want to win a CL final.
If you add that late Choupo Moting miss (doesn’t count in xG because he didn’t get a shot on it), it would probably be worth another 0.5-0.6 to PSG, probably more!
Interesting seeing the variances in the two xG models. The second one is certainly fairer in terms of Neymar’s stats…his effective one on one with Neuer in the 18th minute was a far greater opportunity than the 0.06 given by the first model.