Click here for xG stats for PSG vs Bayern UCL Final
Here is a look at the xG stats from the Bayern Munich vs Lyon Champions League semi-final on 19 August, 2020. Bayern won the game 3-0, but it was a far closer affair, as shown by these xG stats. Lyon had at least three big chances- two squandered by Toko-Ekambi and one by Memphis Depay.
xG Bayern Munich 3.58-1.74 Olympique Lyon (Actual score FC Bayern 3-0 OL)
xG of individual Bayern goals vs Lyon
1-0 Serge Gnabry 18′ goal xG (0.06)
2-0 Serge Gnabry 33′ goal xG (0.74)
3-0 Lewandowski 88′ goal xG (0.10)
xG of missed Lyon chances vs Bayern Munchen CL semi-final
xG of Memphis Depay miss vs Bayern 4′ (0.41)
xG of Toko-Ekambi miss (17th minute xG 0.56; 58th minute xG 0.43)
xG of some other decent Bayern chances that didn’t result in a goal
Robert Lewandowski 33′ (xG 0.77)- in the same movement as the Gnabry goal; Ivan Perisic 51′ (xG 0.15)
Second data model: from Stats Bomb- OL xG 1.5; Bayern Munich xG 3.4
xG stats can vary according to the model used, so here are some xG probabilities from a second model for comparison.
In the second model, individual xG of players
Toko Ekambi 1.1
Memphis Depay 0.2
Houssem Aouar 0.1
Rayan Cherki 0.1
Lewandowski 1.0
Gnabry 0.9
Goretzka 0.5
Perisic 0.4
Muller 0.3
Coutinho, Tolisso and Davies all 0.1
Also click here to see newspaper player ratings for Lyon vs Bayern from L’Equipe, Bild and Kicker.
Lyon needed that little bit of luck to go their way. That early Depay 4th minute chance was quite similar to the Dembele 2-1 v City, the difference being that Moussa scored then, and Memphis didn’t do so here.
Bayern probably deserved winners, but if Lyon had taken those two before Gnabry’s opener, could’ve been a very different game.