Liverpool beat Chelsea 5-3 on July 22, 2020 in one of the classics of the current 2019/20 league season, but the expected goals metric has an interesting story to say.
Actual goals: Liverpool 5-3 Chelsea
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.45-2.38 Chelsea
xG of individual Liverpool goals v Chelsea July 22, 2020
Naby Keita goal xG: 0.02 (1-0, 23nd minute)
Alexander Arnold goal xG: 0.04 (2-0, 38th minute)
Wijnaldum goal xG: 0.07 (3-0, 43nd minute)
Firmino goal xG: 0.41 (4-1, 55th minute)
Ox goal xG: 0.15 (5-3, 84th minute)
Virgil van Dijk had a late chance (91st minute) that had a xG of 0.50, bigger than any of the Liverpool goals on the evening.
xG of individual Chelsea goals v Liverpool July 22, 2020
Olivier Giroud goal xG: 0.66 (3-1, 45+3′ minute)
Tammy Abraham goal xG: 0.70 (4-2, 61th minute)
Christian Pulisic goal xG: 0.06 (4-3, 73rd minute)
There’s no way that first and second goal are so low in real life. We’ve Kieta hit from distance and was given plenty of room to shoot. And Ox was basically open in the middle of the box for the 5th. I get these models are perfect. And people will blame Kepa. But Chelsea gave up quality chances today