Leicester City have been this season’s fairy tale story. 5000/1 outsiders to win the league at the beginning of the season, they now stand on the cusp of a historic triumph, with the likes of Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal all left behind in the dust. The Foxes are seven points ahead of second place Spurs with six games to go in the current league season. They also seem to have a decent set of fixtures- Sunderland, West Ham, Swansea, Man Utd, Everton and Chelsea are their remaining ones. Should they lose to United and Chelsea and win everything else, they’ll still be crowned Champions come May
Here are some beautiful data tables that show how incredible their run has been.
Leicester have lost only THREE times this season. Arsenal, for all their inconsistency, have done the league double over Claudio Ranieiri’s men, and Liverpool beat them on Boxing Day at Anfield.
The lowest Leicester went in the league table was when they lost 5-2 to Arsenal at home (they were eighth after this loss, but had the same number of points as fifth place Everton)
When many expected their challenge to falter after the busy festival set of fixtures, they’ve only grown stronger while all their rivals have fallen by the way.
Their odds story is also fascinating to watch. It’s remarkable how much they dropped when Jamie Vardy was on his magical run of goal scoring form. They were 2000/1 after the Palace game and after Vardy scored for a record breaking 11th straight game against Manchester United, the odds dropped to 100/1.
Post the United game, consecutive wins over Swansea, Chelsea and Everton saw the odds further go down to 20/1 before a streak of three winless games brought it back up to 28/1. But once the Foxes started to regain their mojo in mid January, the odds again started to move in their favour, and when they beat Liverpool and Man City in consecutive games in early February, the odds went down to 11/5.
See the full odds table progression image here
(Image courtesy the great folks here)
The implied probability of Leicester winning the league (using the above mentioned odds) also makes for interesting reading.
Leicester’s fixture this weekend is against Sunderland, the same team they thrashed 4-2 to begin the 2015/16 season. They picked up a priceless point at the Stadium of Light last May to confirm top flight safety, but will be going to the same venue this weekend with the title in their sights. Their opponents are in serious danger of being relegated- the Black Cats are four points off the drop zone, but have a game in hand over 17th place Norwich. They’ve drawn their last four games in all competitions, but need wins if they are to stay up.
Where it all began- Leicester 4-2 Sunderland
A look at the nifty little odds comparison tool on Hityah’s site shows us that most bookies think Leicester have this in the bag. However Sunderland know jobs are on the line if they go down, and relegation threatened teams often tend to punch way above their weight when their backs are against the wall.
Second place Spurs have a tough fixture against Man Utd this weekend, and should Leicester win and the Lilywhites lose, that pushes the former’s advantage to ten points with five to play- an almost impossible situation to rescue in this two horse race for Poch’s boys, you have to think.
Leicester City’s remaining fixtures
v Sunderland (away)
v West Ham (home)
v Swansea (home)
v Man Utd (away)
v Everton (home)
v Chelsea (away)
Tottenham Hotspur remaining fixtures
v Man Utd (home)
v Stoke City (away)
v West Bromwich Albion (home)
v Chelsea (away)
v Southampton (away)
v Newcastle United (Away)