Martin O’Neill and the Republic of Ireland welcome world champions Germany to Dublin tonight, with the former hanging on to their slim hopes of automatic qualification and the latter looking to cement their position as Group D winners.
The Irish are currently third in Group D with 15 points, two behind Poland and four behind Germany, with two rounds of fixtures left. After hosting Joachim Low’s side, Martin O’Neill’s men will conclude their qualifying campaign with a tough fixture away against Poland. The Poles themselves are travelling to Glasgow for their Round 9 tie, and Ireland will be hoping that their Celtic cousins can do them a favour by pulling off an unlikely win against Robert Lewandowski and co, which will set up a mouth watering final round clash in Warsaw this weekend.
Ireland will however definitely get a playoff spot, something that O’Neill has said he will settle for given the tough nature of his final two fixtures.
The former Villa gaffer has also been hit by injuries and suspensions- Everton star Seamus Coleman and Stoke’s Marc Wilson are unlikely to face the Germans due to fitness problems, Glenn Whelan and James McClean are suspended, and there is a big question mark over Wes Hoolahan’s availability. Without these key players, Ireland will have their hands full against Gotze, Muller and co.
Germany’s last trip to Dublin saw them triumph 6-1, with Joachim Low’s men building up a 5-0 lead by the hour mark. Low has however himself said that the result was an anomaly and that he expected a “war of attrition” from the Irish this time around.
Before thinking it’s all gloom and doom for Ireland, here are a couple of positives that Martin O’Neill’s side can take into this clash. The bulk of Germany’s players come from Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, and the two teams squared off against each other just four days ago. Derbies, especially one as fierce as Bayern vs Dortmund, are taxing on the body, both physically and mentally, and Ireland will be hoping to exploit any fatigue factor that the Germans may have.
The Republic also held Germany to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in Gelsenkirchen last year. The game saw John O’Shea celebrate his 100th cap with an injury time equaliser.
The 4-4-1-1 system was successfully employed by Ireland in that fixture, and O’Neill may chosen to return to that formation instead of choosing the current diamond one that may leave his players vulnerable to German attacks in the wider areas of the field.
Germany last five games (most recent first)
Scotland 2-3 Germany
Germany 3-1 Poland
Gibraltar 0-7 Germany
Germany 1-2 USA
Georgia 0-2 Germany
Republic of Ireland last five games (most recent first)
Ireland 1-0 Georgia
Gibraltar 0-4 Ireland
Ireland 1-1 Scotland
Ireland 0-0 England
Ireland 1-1 Poland
The Republic are unbeaten in their last six international fixtures, and even beat the United States 4-1 last November. The US of course, upset Germany in June earlier this year.
What do the bookies think?
Germany are of course favourites, needing just a point to seal automatic qualification. The Republic are heavy outsiders despite playing at home. Guts Sportsbook, for instance, has the Irish at 111/20 (6.55 decimal), with Germany being quoted at 12/25 (1.48 decimal). Not many people will have the guts (pardon the pun!) to back the Irish for this clash, given their injury and suspension problems, but those are tasty odds.
The referee for this game is Carlos Carballo, who has dished out a minimum of four yellow cards in each of his last eighteen outings in charge.
Game– Republic of Ireland vs Germany
Venue– Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kickoff time– 19.45
Referee– Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP)