The opening weekend of the Premier League season was certainly not short on drama, but it already looks like the market has begun shifting in favour of Manchester City.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side comfortably beat West Bromwich Albion 3-0 with Yaya Toure playing a pivotal role, and lead the league after the first round of games played. Unsurprisingly both City and Chelsea are riding high in the bookies’ estimations with the former just edging out the latter in terms of price. However, with Chelsea slipping early and failing to overcome a gritty Swansea side, the wave of support is now moving away from the defending champions. The Eva Carneiro controversy hasn’t helped matters either, with Mourinho not taking too kindly to the well known physio reducing his side to nine players when she rushed to the field to treat Eden Hazard.
Of course, it’s way too early to start writing off Chelsea just yet, but the current price for Jose Mourinho’s side at 32Red (the firm that adorned Villa and Swansea’s shirts and currently appears on Rangers’ kits) is 21/10 for the title. Although a short price, this line isn’t as short as Manchester City’s which sits at 9/5.
As surprising as it may be to see the defending champions already second in the markets, this price isn’t unique to 32Red. In fact, a survey of the leading bookmakers such as Ladbrokes, Betfred and 10bet suggests that Man City are the likely team to take home the title, with the odds significantly shorter on Pellegrini’s men when compared to others.
Naturally, with millions in the bank, a plethora of talent on the pitch and the requisite experience necessary to win the Premier League, it’s fair to say that a punt on Manuel Pellegrini’s side would be a wise one. Indeed, the way they started against the Baggies, it’s hard to argue the team won’t be right up there come the close of the season.
However, while this would likely make you money, the fact remains that it won’t return you a lot of money. Given the short odds offered on Man City, you’d need to stake a small fortune just to make a few hundred pounds. However, the online betting world doesn’t just focus on the overall winner and given the popularity of the league, it’s possible to speculate on a range of options and one of the best value bets currently on offer on 32Red, Ladbrokes et al is the top four finish wager.
Although a tricky proposition, this option is a lot easier to predict than the outright winner. If we assume that Chelsea and Man City will almost certainly finish in the top four, then it leave two places for a slew of clubs. Traditionally, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool will be challenging for one of those places, but what about the rest of the league? One of the dark horses in this year’s betting market could be Southampton. Although not the biggest name in the game, the Saints managed to finish seventh last season and notched up a number of personal records on the way.
Are Southampton good value for a potential top four finish? The picture above would certainly suggest so. This shows Southampton’s league position for every round of the 14/15 league season. You can see that they were in the top four for almost half the season, before slipping and eventually finishing 7th.
Aside from a club record 8-0 drubbing of Sunderland, Southampton also held the distinction of only one of two clubs to not lose to Chelsea last season. These achievements, coupled with the club’s highest ever league finish, will undoubtedly give Ronald Koeman’s men a confidence this year. Despite an early draw with Newcastle, many have tipped Southampton as the value bet this year. In fact, this idea is further enhanced by the fact most bookmakers have the side priced at 16/1 to finish within the top four.
Saints also have a pretty good draw- in fact, in the first two months of the season, the only “big name” team they face is Manchester United, and that too at home in front of their supporters at St.Mary’s. Their biggest threat might however be the Europa League, and Koeman must be careful to ensure that the South Coast oufit’s European ambitions do not cannibalise their PL hopes.
Unlike speculating on Man City for the title, this price means you don’t have to risk a fortune in order to win a meaningful sum of money. In fact, for a relatively small stake you could speculate on the Saints and hope the gambling gods reward you with a generous payout. At 16/1, £10 would fetch one a return of £170.
Regardless of where each team finishes in the league and who is or isn’t a value bet, one thing’s for certain this year: the Premier League is going to be tighter than ever. With teams such as Chelsea already dropping valuable points, it’s highly likely that there will be more upsets and surprises along the way. With margins between victory and defeat growing ever slimmer, it’s possible that this league season could be the most entertaining one in recent memory.
And let’s keep an eye on Saints’ progress as the season goes on.