A loss to Russia away means that England’s dreams of European qualification are now hanging by a thread. The race in Group E has come down to three teams- Croatia, England and Russia, out of which only two can qualify. Four minutes of madness at the Luzhniki Stadium made what seemed to be three points sealed into nothing at all. And if Russia and Croatia have anything to say, Steve McLaren could become the first English manager since Graham Taylor to fail to qualify for a major international event.
Result : Russia 2-1 England ( Roman Pavyluchenko*2/ Wayne Rooney)
How does Group E stand at this moment ?
The Croatians have 26 from 10 games, England have 23 from 11 and Russia have 21 from 10.
England have one game remaining- against Croatia. ( H)
Croatia have two games remaining – against England and Macedonia ( A)
Russia have two games remaining- Israel and Andorra ( A)
Going by past form, Croatia should beat Macedonia ( or atleast draw)
Croatia and Russia winning on November 17 will mean that everything boils down to the games on November 21, namely
England vs Croatia
Andorra vs Russia
By virtue of their win or draw against Macedonia, Croatia would have assured themselves of qualification. That leaves England (23) fighting against Russia ( 24) for the second spot.
England have home advantage against Croatia, and Russia drew with Israel when the two played at the Luzhniki. Russia do seem determined to do it for their manager Guus Hiddink, and that could be another factor against England.
For England, everything rests on the Israel- Russia game, for Russia should have no problem in thrashing Andorra.
How have the three teams faired against each other so far ?
Croatia against England and Russia ( drew both games against Russia and won once against England- 5 points)
England against Russia and Croatia ( Won 1 and lost 1 against Russia and lost to Croatia away-3 points)
Russia against Croatia and England( 1 win, 1 loss and 2 draws- 5 points)
As per the Wiki article, it seems that the tiebreakers go as follows : ( if two or more teams end up on the same number of points). Say if England draw against Croatia and Russia lose to Israel, both end up on 24 points.
1.) Group Points in the games amongst the two ( 1 win 1 loss- so equal)
2.) Superior Goal difference from the games played between the two ( Here England by virtue of their 3-0 win at Wembley, will sneak past Russia)
Ideally Russia will want to beat Israel so that they do not have to depend on Croatia. If Croatia lose to Macedonia on November 17, that could complicate things further. Given Andorra’s tournament so far, with no disrespect, the chances that they will best the Russians, even while playing at home, is highly unlikely.